With launch capacity constrained and only around 400 satellites in orbit, Amazon Leo has shifted the timing for the launch of its satellite Internet service from mid-year 2026 to “later this year.”
Impact: Amazon Leo launched an additional 29 satellites in early July on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket and has since said that it has more than 100 launches scheduled with various rocket companies, meaning it will be able to continue adding to its constellation and possibly even accelerate its launch pace by using the larger ULA Vulcan rocket. But the number of Amazon Leo satellites in orbit remains well below the 700 the company predicted by the end of July, putting it further behind on its deployment goals. In addition, launch delays seem more likely than not after the Blue Origin rocket explosion last month. The company has been sending mixed messages about the launch and also remains vague about the exact timing for it, with Launch Director Melissa Wuerl commenting, “…we have a clear path to increase launch and deployment cadence, helping us quickly expand network coverage following an initial service rollout later this year.” That contradicts messaging from CEO Andy Jassy in May that suggested a service launch would occur mid-year. Another executive, Chris Weber, said the current constellation in orbit is enough to offer contiguous service in “initial latitudes.” But he also said more work needs to be done ahead of an official launch, including raising new satellites to their assigned altitude. It appears as though future missions will focus more on adding coverage and capacity.
At least one analyst, Joe Gardiner of CCS Insight, called launch capacity a major problem for the entire satellite industry (SpaceX included). Some of that stems from the fact that SpaceX continues to use a portion of its rockets for non-Starlink payloads but has been unwilling to increase the number of non-Starlink launches even as more entities have gotten into the satellite Internet space. He also said there are hints that SpaceX could shrink the non-Starlink launches to get more of its own satellites into orbit, which would further narrow launch capacity over the next few years. It’s unlikely Blue Origin will be available to pick up the slack either. In addition to the Blue origin rocket explosion that destroyed its launch pad, that company also has its own TeraWave constellation of more than 5,408 satellites planned. This likely will restrict its availability as a launch partner as well. Even prior to the explosion, Blue Origin kept to an irregular launch schedule, making it less reliable than other launch partners for companies like Amazon Leo, which need to get their satellites into orbit on a regular cadence to meet deployment guidelines from the FCC. Even though Blue Origin and Amazon share ownership, it doesn’t appear that Amazon Leo will benefit from that as much as one might expect. So even though Amazon Leo appears to be inching closer to an actual launch date, it’s not progressing as much as it should be. The slow deployment pace and the delayed service launch, while detrimental to Leo, benefits SpaceX by giving it opportunity to push further ahead in satellite connectivity. Amazon Leo will have to work even harder to catch up once it’s able to offer a viable satellite Internet option.
However, Amazon Leo should be able to persevere in its efforts to become a Starlink competitor because it isn’t just launch dependent. The company will add to its constellation through acquisition should its $11.5 billion agreement to acquire Apple satellite connectivity partner Globalstar win regulatory approval. Filings submitted to the FCC regarding the deal, expected to close in 2027, came out both for and against the transaction. Public Knowledge and the Open Technology Institute at New America favor more competition in the direct-to-device segment currently dominated by SpaceX, and Amazon Leo plans to launch a D2D service by 2028. The groups also expressed optimism that satellite connectivity will create additional competition in the terrestrial mobile market currently dominated by AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon. On the flip side, a company known as Yippy that’s partially owned by Globalstar wants the FCC to block the deal or impose significant conditions on the approval. Yippy fears that Amazon Leo will restructure Globalstar’s operations and eliminate its contractual rights, putting Yippy’s existence into question. But the relationship between Globalstar and Yippy has been rocky for a while, with a dismissed lawsuit in the not so distant past. While it’s not clear how seriously the FCC takes the comments it receives related to M&A, it seems unlikely the Yippy concerns will be enough to derail the transaction. That would be good news for Amazon Leo and the FCC, which want to drive more competition in space and needs Amazon Leo to emerge as a Starlink competitor.
